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Sentinels Statistics Project

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MindWanderer
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MigrantP wrote:
MindWanderer, how are you tracking games that have an "End Game" event but not a "Start Game" event on the same day?
I don't!  There's no connection between start games and end games, and I didn't see a particular need to map them.  I just deal with the totals.  So if Legacy was in 100 started games and 50 finished games, I report his completion rate as 50%.  If I ran a whole report for a single day, yeah, I could get errors where there would be 1 completed game and 0 started games with a particular hero/villain/etc, but with aggregates that's not an issue.

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MindWanderer
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Interesting fact I just noticed: One way to beat Heroic Infinitor is to get him banished by Unforgiving Wasteland while on his front side.  However, apparently this has never actually happened!  I'm guessing it's so much easier to beat him with the "no more manifestations" condition that it never comes up, but it's funny that apparently no one has ever even gone for it.


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Not outside of testing versions at least. 


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MindWanderer
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I actually get the testing data, too.  I'm filtering out any data that includes games with content that hasn't been released yet, but right now I'm reporting games played with Heroic Infinitor that took place before he officially went live.  I imagine there are tests performed on versions of the app that don't report their results at all, but beta testers' results are in there (unless they tested against, for example, Extremist Sky-Scraper--I'm not saying she's in there at all, but if she were, her games would be filtered out).


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Arcanist Lupus
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Hmm. That strategy would be good for challenge Heroic Infinitor, who is nigh impossible to beat on his front side.


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He's hard, but I wouldn't say Nigh-Impossible.

Don't use an environment and heros with extra targets, and keep yourself healed, and he'll fizzle out.

I tried beating him with CC, and had no luck.

Freedom Tower, no small HP targets?  Just get a little DR and you're golden.

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MindWanderer wrote:

I actually get the testing data, too.  I'm filtering out any data that includes games with content that hasn't been released yet, but right now I'm reporting games played with Heroic Infinitor that took place before he officially went live.  I imagine there are tests performed on versions of the app that don't report their results at all, but beta testers' results are in there (unless they tested against, for example, Extremist Sky-Scraper--I'm not saying she's in there at all, but if she were, her games would be filtered out).

Testing data might mess the results. I might be the minority, but when I am testing, I don't always play to win. Often, I am looking and testing particular interactions.


Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing.
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Pydro wrote:

 

MindWanderer wrote:
I actually get the testing data, too.  I'm filtering out any data that includes games with content that hasn't been released yet, but right now I'm reporting games played with Heroic Infinitor that took place before he officially went live.  I imagine there are tests performed on versions of the app that don't report their results at all, but beta testers' results are in there (unless they tested against, for example, Extremist Sky-Scraper--I'm not saying she's in there at all, but if she were, her games would be filtered out).

 

 

Testing data might mess the results. I might be the minority, but when I am testing, I don't always play to win. Often, I am looking and testing particular interactions.

I had meant to say something along these lines.   Thanks for writing them for me about why I'm hesitant that they should be added.  


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Matchstickman
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Powerhound_2000 wrote:

 

Pydro wrote:
 MindWanderer wrote:
I actually get the testing data, too.  I'm filtering out any data that includes games with content that hasn't been released yet, but right now I'm reporting games played with Heroic Infinitor that took place before he officially went live.  I imagine there are tests performed on versions of the app that don't report their results at all, but beta testers' results are in there (unless they tested against, for example, Extremist Sky-Scraper--I'm not saying she's in there at all, but if she were, her games would be filtered out). 

 

 Testing data might mess the results. I might be the minority, but when I am testing, I don't always play to win. Often, I am looking and testing particular interactions.

I had meant to say something along these lines.   Thanks for writing them for me about why I'm hesitant that they should be added.  

I already did say something!

 


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Matchstickman wrote:

I already did say something

Well I think I missed that one.   Thanks for showing your concern about it as well


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MindWanderer
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MigrantP and I talked about that, but the number of test games which are actually completed is really small compared to all the legit "playing to win" data.  I'd be more worried about people aiming for achievements and unlocks, but even with that, it's just a small amount of noise in the larger signal.  Remember, we're looking at over a million games here.


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Regardless of the number I'd prefer those be excluded. 


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MindWanderer
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Well, I don't have any way of doing that.  They're not identified in any way.  I thought about setting up an elaborate check to see if any games were reported with characters that hadn't been released yet, setting up a whole table with the release dates of every hero, villain, and environment, but not only would that have been a great deal of trouble for very little gain, it still wouldn't necessarily catch all the playtester games.

And again, games in which people deliberately lose or do other strange things in order to unlock a particular character or achievement will be literally hundreds of times more common.  I started analyzing just January, before filtering out playtest games (challenge mode and Biomancer), and the filter ended up taking out only a dozen games or so.  At that rate, I estimate perhaps 0.03% of games being playtest games.  It's nothing compared to the other noise there will be in the data; it's less than the amount of clerical error in the user-submitted statistics project by far.

In other news, since there are so many games in the Handelabra data, I've added some more stats in the Details screen: the logistic regression model coefficient for each hero, villain, and environment assuming you've already selected that particular hero, villain, or environment. This makes it easier to see things like, for instance, the Mobile Defense Platform being unusually bad against Deadline and the Sentinels unusually good against Tormented Infinitor (common sense, but good to see numerical confirmation).  Some of the sample sizes are still really small, though, so use at your own discretion.


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I did a few comparisons of the Video game stats vs. the Physical game stats. Here are some things I found interesting.

The completion rate ranking for villains tracks the win rate ranking pretty well, meaning I think people are more often abandoning games they think they will lose than games they think they will win. So, I think the win rate stats are biased by the completion rates - heroes with lower completion rates (36% like Argent Adept: Prime Warden) are probably "overrated" when you just look at win rates and heroes with higher completion rates (57% like Legacy:Young) are "underrated".

That said, some villains provoke abandonment more or less often than the win rate alone would predict. For example, more games against Wager Master and Kaargra get completed than expected, my guess is because they can win in a single card play. But fewer games against Akash and Spite get completed than expected, my guess is because they can be annoying depending on how the cards fall and that they can lock down hero damage so that people just don't want to finish even if they would eventually win.

The top 5 heroes that did better in the physical game than the video game (by rank, not win %) were Sky-Scraper (22 ranks) Tachyon (21) Visionary (18) Prime Warden Captain Cosmic (13) and Dark Watch Fixer (13). I have no idea why these heroes either underperformed in the video game (or overperformed in the physical game, depending on how you look at it).

The top 5 heroes that did better in the video game than the physical game were Setback (19) KNYFE: Rogue Agent (17) Mr. Fixer (15) KNYFE (14) and Parse (14). At least some of those seem to be due to the UNDO feature helping heroes with random base powers.

The top 3 villains that did better in the physical game than the video game were La Capitan (10) The Matriarch (8) and Cosmic Omnitron (4). The top 3 villains that did better in the video game than the physical game were Miss Information (12) Wager Master (9) and Tormented Infinitor (5). This is surprising to me, because I consider most of those villains in both categories to be easier to beat once you know their strategy, so I would have thought that would bias one way or the other.

The harder villains tend to have a much lower win rate in the video game than the physical game. I'd guess that this is because people reporting physical games are more likely to both 1) win and 2) report wins.

The top 5 most popular heroes in the video game are the base versions of Legacy, Tempest, Ra, Wraith, and Haka. Base Tachyon is the least popular hero from the first set, presumably due to her promos being very popular.

 

 

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dclietz wrote:

The top 5 heroes that did better in the physical game than the video game (by rank, not win %) were Sky-Scraper (22 ranks) Tachyon (21) Visionary (18) Prime Warden Captain Cosmic (13) and Dark Watch Fixer (13). I have no idea why these heroes either underperformed in the video game (or overperformed in the physical game, depending on how you look at it).

For Prime Warden Captian Cosmic I would guess it's because people would use it multiple times in a single turn and allow it to give the choice that many times. Which is very, very powerful. Dark Watch Mister Fixer may be people forgoing the destruction on it. 

dclietz wrote:

The top 5 heroes that did better in the video game than the physical game were Setback (19) KNYFE: Rogue Agent (17) Mr. Fixer (15) KNYFE (14) and Parse (14). At least some of those seem to be due to the UNDO feature helping heroes with random base powers.

If someone uses the undo feature to get a favorable result then I would also guess they would also check the decks in the physical to see what the result could be. My best guess is because people have had more practice with the heroes, thus allowing them to be more skilled by the time that hero was released in the Video Game. I think this is probably most true with Mister Fixer.

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Ronway wrote:
For Prime Warden Captian Cosmic I would guess it's because people would use it multiple times in a single turn and allow it to give the choice that many times. Which is very, very powerful.
That got nerfed, you can't do that anymore.  Unless you think people are still applying the old interpretation? 
Ronway wrote:
Dark Watch Mister Fixer may be people forgoing the destruction on it.
Like... cheating?  That doesn't make much sense.
Ronway wrote:
If someone uses the undo feature to get a favorable result then I would also guess they would also check the decks in the physical to see what the result could be. 
I dunno, I find myself doing it more in the video game.  Somehow it seems easier to justify than if I were doing it in person.  I think that in a video game I'm more used to "anything the game allows me to do is legal" whereas in a physical game I know it's on me to not cheat.

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MindWanderer wrote:

Ronway wrote:

For Prime Warden Captian Cosmic I would guess it's because people would use it multiple times in a single turn and allow it to give the choice that many times. Which is very, very powerful.

 

That got nerfed, you can't do that anymore.  Unless you think people are still applying the old interpretation? 

There would still be games that were input that people would have used that. Also people would houserule that it still works like that.

MindWanderer wrote:
Ronway wrote:
Dark Watch Mister Fixer may be people forgoing the destruction on it.

 

Like... cheating?  That doesn't make much sense.

I believe the proper term would be houserule.

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In light of the abandonment issue, I'd love a "surrender" button to insta-lose. There are many times I get to a bad game state, where it's pretty sure I'm going to lose, and it's not worth spending the time to make sure.

Of course, a surrender button might be more accurate, but it also could just have the same problem, reversed?

If you had a surrender button, would you be more likely to use it only when you're going to lose? Would you use it instead of abandoning and never abandon again? Or would you ignore it and continue to just abandon all games instead?

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I know I abandon a bunch of Akash games. In many games, I have a tendency to find it difficult to stop then pick it up later. I often forget exactly what I was trying to do and the specifics of what is going on. This happens to many games, not just SotM.

Akash games tends to be longer. If I don't finish it in one sitting, I very often abandon it instead of finishing it later.


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Pydro wrote:

Akash games tends to be longer. If I don't finish it in one sitting, I very often abandon it instead of finishing it later.

Ah, good point. I hadn't thought of that.

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Thanks for all the work on the Mindwander difficult pages.

On this page: http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/stats-full.html

there are logisitc regression coefficients for each villain.  Do those coefficiencts combine advanced and base versions?  If only base, is there a way to see the advance coefficients?

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Advanced, Challenge, and Advanced+Challenge (Ultimate) are all separate, but filtered by default.  If you change the contents of the Search field you'll see the others.


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Noticed that the data for the Stats project hasn't updated since 7-11.... wanted to flag it in case it wasn't an intended change to the frequency of the updates.

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Thanks!  Fixed and updated.


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MindWanderer
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Now that the SotM video game has a launcher API, I've adapted my calculator/randomizer to work with it: http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/random_vg.html

Please give it a shot and let me know if anything doesn't work as expected.  Especially for Steam, since I only own the game for Android.

Known issues:

  • Challenge mode for team villains doesn't work at all.  This is on Handelabra's side and will be fixed in a future update.
  • Variants released this month do not appear.  That's because I don't have any stats on them, so my calculator doesn't know what to do with them.
  • Any variants released since the last game update won't load (you'll get the base version).  This is because the game loads the launcher-selected content before figuring out that the variants have been unlocked by Handelabra's magic button.  They'll work as soon as an update is released that includes them by default (although then there will be new variants that won't initially load).
  • Because Chrono-Ranger and Sky-Scraper don't have any variants according to the default code, their behavior is a little wonky.  This will also sort itself out on the next update.
  • Ultimate Trickster Kismet is in there for some reason.  Somehow someone managed to make the game think they played against her.  Obviously, selecting her for a game won't work.  Because of the sheer size of this database (over a million games), going in there manually to pull out one game is a pain in the butt and I'd rather just wait for her to become implemented for real.

Any other bugs or oddities, please let me know here.


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Cool!

The Steam URL needs to be different - it's a steam:// URL that includes the sotm:// URL as a URL-encoded parameter. Right now both buttons have the same sotm:// URL.

When I click Randomize, the only thing that seems to happen is the text "Shuffled!" appears. It would be nice to see what the randomized setup is.


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MigrantP wrote:
The Steam URL needs to be different - it's a steam:// URL that includes the sotm:// URL as a URL-encoded parameter. Right now both buttons have the same sotm:// URL.
Fixed--there was code for that but it wasn't evaluating correctly.  At least, it's a steam:// URL now; I still can't confirm it functions correctly.

MigrantP wrote:
When I click Randomize, the only thing that seems to happen is the text "Shuffled!" appears. It would be nice to see what the randomized setup is.
The radio buttons fill in.  If you then click Calculate, you can mouse over/tap the results window to see what the calculation is based on, or you can sort the tables by the radio button column to put the selected options at the top.

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Just tried it out on Steam.... very cool!

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Most of the radio buttons are not visible. It would be great if when clicking Randomize it would tell you what it did right away - perhaps instead of just saying "Shuffled!" in that space. Right now it takes 2 or 3 extra actions to find out, every time you randomize.

The Steam link is working now, thanks!


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Hm... that would be a lot of information to cram into a small space.  I'd rather not make that space bigger, since its purpose is just to display one number or error message.  Right now it's just one extra click and a mouse-over, or two taps.  I could use a pop-up, but then you'd need that extra click just to dismiss it.  I suppose I could have it automatically float the chosen items to the tops of their respective tables, do you think that would be better?  Or I could have it immediately trigger the difficulty calculation, which would save the user that one click.


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Definitely at the least float the chosen items to the top.

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I would have never guessed in a million years that clicking Calculate + mousing over would show me that info. If you try to find out by sorting (which I also would never have guessed), it's 3 extra clicks the first time, and then 6 (!) extra clicks every next time you randomize.

IMO the results of what you randomized are the most important thing to show, and I would display them immediately in a prominent space. It could also just show the calculation result immediately as well without another click, whenever you randomize or change your selection. That operation seems to take no perceptable amount of time.


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MindWanderer
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The calculate action does take a moment, especially on a slower phone.  It used to take a couple of seconds on my old Galaxy S5 and still takes a perceptible amount of a second on my new Pixel 2.  I suppose I could do it server-side asynchronously like I did with the old calculator for the tabletop version, but I'm shy about shunting too much to the server since I'm running this in a shared environment.

Anyway, I've changed it so that shuffling also results in it immediately calculating as well, and sorting the selected items to the top.

I'd like to think that you'd click on the "About" link or clicked on a table header with a sort icon on it within some time less than a million years...


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Well I do write the greatest hyperbole in the known Universe after all =)

Definitely feels better to click that randomize button now!


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MindWanderer wrote:

Now that the SotM video game has a launcher API, I've adapted my calculator/randomizer to work with it: http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/random_vg.htmlPlease give it a shot and let me know if anything doesn't work as expected.  Especially for Steam, since I only own the game for Android.Known issues:Challenge mode for team villains doesn't work at all.  This is on Handelabra's side and will be fixed in a future update.Variants released this month do not appear.  That's because I don't have any stats on them, so my calculator doesn't know what to do with them.Any variants released since the last game update won't load (you'll get the base version).  This is because the game loads the launcher-selected content before figuring out that the variants have been unlocked by Handelabra's magic button.  They'll work as soon as an update is released that includes them by default (although then there will be new variants that won't initially load).Because Chrono-Ranger and Sky-Scraper don't have any variants according to the default code, their behavior is a little wonky.  This will also sort itself out on the next update.Ultimate Trickster Kismet is in there for some reason.  Somehow someone managed to make the game think they played against her.  Obviously, selecting her for a game won't work.  Because of the sheer size of this database (over a million games), going in there manually to pull out one game is a pain in the butt and I'd rather just wait for her to become implemented for real.Any other bugs or oddities, please let me know here.

 

Just checking this out. Very cool that there's an API. What are the Quick Select buttons supposed to do? I'm on Chrome/Win10 and nothing seems to happen when I click them.


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arenson9 wrote:

What are the Quick Select buttons supposed to do? I'm on Chrome/Win10 and nothing seems to happen when I click them.

Ah. I see the little lock buttons now. Recommend: Some sort of style change for each quick select button to show whether or not it's currently clicked/selected.


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For each of the hero/villain/environment tables, clicking Name in the header sorts by name, but clicking the lock/unlock icon changes either unlocks or locks all rows. I found this inconsistency confusing, as I was trying to sort all of the unlocked rows to the top.


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If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If not now, when? If I am for myself alone, what am I? -- Hillel

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It would be nice to be able to exclude ultimate, challenge, and advanced modes.


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If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If not now, when? If I am for myself alone, what am I? -- Hillel

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arenson9 wrote:
For each of the hero/villain/environment tables, clicking Name in the header sorts by name, but clicking the lock/unlock icon changes either unlocks or locks all rows. I found this inconsistency confusing, as I was trying to sort all of the unlocked rows to the top.
Fair enough.  The column head now sorts, and the lock icon that used to be there is now in the section legend.

arenson9 wrote:
Ah. I see the little lock buttons now. Recommend: Some sort of style change for each quick select button to show whether or not it's currently clicked/selected.
That I'm not going to do.  I'd have to check what should be highlighted every time any lock status was toggled, and with this framework, that could be resource-intensive on slower devices.

arenson9 wrote:
It would be nice to be able to exclude ultimate, challenge, and advanced modes.
I had mixed feelings about this one.  One of my reasons for doing this was to encourage people to try those modes.  But I went ahead and did it, defaulting to leaving them available.

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Thanks


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Hmm... Something seems to be up with the stats project. The games I've logged after 2/12/18 aren't showing up. I clicked on a few other names in the contributers tab and didn't see any with games from after 2/12.

SandyStriker
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For a second I thought I had been banned from the project but now I see other contributers are not able to addi games afters 2/12. Does anyone know if the project is done updating?

MindWanderer
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Just checked the back-end spreadsheet, and yeah, after 2/12 there are no more entries. lynkfox will have to look into it.


Sentinels Statistics Project -- Statistics updated daily!

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SandyStriker
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Thanks for setting up that model and the auto updating. I really enjoy seeing the coefficients. Would it be a pain to merge the challenge mode for Agent of gloom spite and for skinwalker gloomy. Right now I am pretty sure that people are more likely to enter games as agent of gloom spite if they lose and skinwalker gloom if they win. The games are actually identical but I don't expect the coeficients to merge because it is sort of odd to enter the game as skin walker gloom if you never even got to that phase of the game and it is odd to enter the game as agent spite if it was hours ago that you defeated him and moved on to gloom. Like I said though, I really appreciate the work that has been put in.

lynkfox
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i'm... stumped. I think it has to do with the new forms. its still getting responses (you can see them in the Individual section on the /form/ from the editors side - last active response beside my Tests is from 2/18 by abnelson ) but none of them are showing up on the spreadsheet.

 

i'll keep looking at it.


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

Pydro
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Doesn't Google have a maximum size for their spreadsheets?


Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing.
-Robert E. Howard, "The Tower of the Elephant"

lynkfox
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Not since the new update, a few years ago. (we definitely ran into that issue at about 10k entries)

 

Its been accepting allt he data, but it hasn't been getting into the sheets. Anything from the last week is in there, but not in the sheet it seems. Going over it with MindWanderer now to see what I need to do or help in order to get the script working properly.


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

lynkfox
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Oh. May need a new form address: https://goo.gl/forms/cQccMUcaXlqBumME3

 

(welll, the old link still works, thats just a shorter one)


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

MindWanderer
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That link and the old one go to exactly the same place when fully resolved.

I don't think there's anything I can do if the data doesn't go into the sheet somehow.


Sentinels Statistics Project -- Statistics updated daily!

Submit your games here!

lynkfox
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Okay. It seems to be accepting new entries again. Seems I say, but its hard to tell.

 

Any entry entered between 2/12/18 after 11pm est and 2/18/18 about 2pmest  insn't going to be in the site Mindwanderer puts up. They are in the system, but not in the spreedsheet. I don't think that we'll get them either. No idea what happened. I'll keep an eye on it and see.

 

If anyone else sees something like that, just send me a pm so I can jump on it as early as posisble.


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/ - SoTM Statistics! Updated DAILY!

PM me if you're interested in playing with the Statistics Data!

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