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Sentinels Statistics Project

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lynkfox
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If Google sheets could do Tabbed lists, hell yeah i'd go more official

 

So it be like

 

Absolute Zero

     Freedom Five Absolute Zero

 

but it can't... so we can do

 

Absolute Zero

Argent Adept

Dark Watch Expat

Dark Watch Mr Fixer

Expatriette

Freedom Five Absolute Zero

Freedom Five Legacy

 

for instance, but... i find that harder to find what you're looking for, because, at least for me, it goes 'Absolute Zero! Okay, where is his F5 variant... oh its way farther down.

 

Or... I'm looking for DW Expat... heres Expat... oh DW is higher up. hmm.

 

Its up in the air still though, lots of options.

 

 

As for The Sentinels vrs no The on Scholar.... Honestly, it was because I never refer to them as anything other than 'The Sentinels' in my head, where I refer to just Scholar, or Visionary, or Wraith all the time. It's probably because they are a team.

And... probably no, we don't need the : on Scholar of the Infinite. I was just trying to be consistant, but it's been bugging me too.

 


Lynkfox.
http://sentinelswiki.com/ The Sentinels of the Multiverse Wiki

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lynkfox
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Oh, and a second thing!

 

If done the way I have it on the list, when you sort your results page MindWanderer, people can easily compare all versions of a hero to its base - It will be all grouped together automatically, rather than seperated down the list.


Lynkfox.
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I was thinking more along the lines of "Unity: Golem" instead of "Unity: Freedom Six" (unless the new cards say that instead; I haven't seen them yet). Not everyone who has the cards may know what their official name may be.

One advantage to consistent usage of colons is that it would allow me to easily compile aggregate statistics by deck.


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lynkfox
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MindWanderer wrote:

I was thinking more along the lines of "Unity: Golem" instead of "Unity: Freedom Six" (unless the new cards say that instead; I haven't seen them yet). Not everyone who has the cards may know what their official name may be.

One advantage to consistent usage of colons is that it would allow me to easily compile aggregate statistics by deck.

 

consitent : are a go then.

 

And Ahh, i get what you mean now. I call them F6 but that isn't anywhere on the card.

 

So, probably something like

 

Absolute Zero: Freedom Six (Elemental Wrath)

 

seeing as I already have AA as

Argent Adept: Dark Conductor (Kvothe)


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I like that a lot...

Some players probably call him by each name so by including both it should make it so that no one is confused at all.

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We have analytics data in both Flurry and Google Analytics for iOS and Android, but Steam data is only in Google Analytics. So it will be probably easier for people on the statistics project to only have to parse one format. 
 
Here is a link to a week's worth of sample data from Steam:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15ZA8YTQ6-JhgpF69HxJUt9oVCSj06JPjNjJgfJDjbZA/edit?usp=sharing
 
I will look into whether I can set up Google Analytics API access in such a way that you can get access to this data and not necessarily all of the data on our account =). If so that should be fairly easy, if not then we can work a plan for providing data on a regular basis, probably monthly.


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Okay, the hero list is updated, and all turned over. Should be a lot easier to find what your looking for when inputing data.

 

MindWanderer - you said you also wanted the villain names to be different for Vengeance Style villains. Would it be easier if perhaps we made them all the same? Like:

 

Ambuscade (Vengeance)

Baron Blade (Vengeance)

Biomancer (Vengeance)

Bugbear ((Vengeance)

 

 

ect? Maybe (Team) instead of  (Vengeance), but Vengeance is consistent with the terminology I was using on the Wiki

 

Would that be easier to seperate out with your scripts, rather than as it is now?

 

 

 

 


Lynkfox.
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lynkfox wrote:

Would that be easier to seperate out with your scripts, rather than as it is now?    


Much, yes! Team or Vengeance are fine either way. OblivAeon is sort of a villain team, too, as I understand it... I'm not sure whether it would make more sense to combine the Vengeance villains with the Scions of OblivAeon, since I haven't seen it in action yet, but I'm guessing not.
MigrantP wrote:

We have analytics data in both Flurry and Google Analytics for iOS and Android, but Steam data is only in Google Analytics. So it will be probably easier for people on the statistics project to only have to parse one format.  Here is a link to a week's worth of sample data from Steam:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15ZA8YTQ6-JhgpF69HxJUt9oVCSj06JPj... I will look into whether I can set up Google Analytics API access in such a way that you can get access to this data and not necessarily all of the data on our account =). If so that should be fairly easy, if not then we can work a plan for providing data on a regular basis, probably monthly.


Now that's an interesting format--JSON inside a spreadsheet. I should be able to work with that, and it's nice that it uses aggregates for identical games instead of one game per row. Would the regular data be in this same format? If so, I can just modify my existing Google Sheets API pull, and a month's worth of data at a time would be trivial to manage.

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lynkfox
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Okay! It will be Vengeance, I'll do that later tonight


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It's in a Google sheet because I exported it directly from Google Analytics and that was one of the options. It's just a sample so you have an idea of what the data has and the format of each record.


Lead Bit Flipper, Handelabra Games
Developer of Sentinels, Bottom of the 9th, and Spirit Island

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lynkfox wrote:

Okay, the hero list is updated, and all turned over. Should be a lot easier to find what your looking for when inputing data.

Heh, you consolidated "(none)" and "(None)" which broke my script.  Fixed.

And more importantly, the calculator and user report tools are now up.  (Actually, the user report was up last Thursday, but I mentioned it in a post edit, which I forgot would get eaten.)

Next on the to-do list is reports by hero deck, since that's a thing I can do easily now, but it's low-priority so I might not get to it for a week or two.  Not sure how much difference it will make anyway, since the base variant of all heroes is always at least 3x more popular than the second-most popular variant, and usually much more.


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TakeWalker
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Hey hey, how about that contributors page? :D I like!

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Whoops! If anyone was trying the calculator earlier today, there was a small but catastrophic error in the function that would have produced gibberish results. It's fixed now.


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MindWanderer wrote:

there was a small but catastrophic error in the function that would have produced gibberish results. It's fixed now.


From now on, I'm going to start characterizing all my mistakes as "small but catastrophic errors!"

Anyway I'm glad you fixed the function that produces gibberish results.

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It was an off-by-one error.  My randomly clicking around didn't reveal it because I happened to choose heroes/villains/environments that were pretty close to the one before them in most cases.  Then I tried Kismet and couldn't figure out why her predicted win rates were in the toilet...

I've also adjusted the "deviance" predictions and chi-square values for all comparisons involving a solo villain.  Looking through the stats, the choice of villain seems to be much more important as the choice of any one hero, the environment, or the team size, so I've weighted it twice in the prediction calculations.  It looks like even that might be underdoing it, but I'll leave it there for now until I have a chance to do some intensive math to see what the actual naive predictions ought to be.


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I've un-adjusted those last adjustments.  The actual relationship is more complicated and not at all linear.  It looks like extremely good or bad heroes, villains, and environments have curvilinear relationships with other elements.  For instance, Kismet is really easy in most environments, but in a handful (Wagner Mars Base, Realm of Discord, Insular Primalis) she's quite a bit harder than you'd expect, and those are so extreme that they skew the averages.  Environments x Villains are actually interesting--in virtually all cases, only the villain matters, and the environment doesn't affect difficulty at all, but for some environments, the effect is significant.  Same with team size--adding an additional hero, unless it's the single worst hero in the game (Captain Cosmic: Prime Warden), will always make the game easier.  So I'm simplifying things and just using straight averages.  Users can figure things out as they will.

Also, so few interactions are statistically significant that I'll hold off on adding interaction terms to the calculator's model like I had planned.  Maybe I'll do that when I have Handelabra's data and my sample size goes way up.

Same with stats by hero deck.  Right now, except for Team Leader Tachyon, no variant is more than 1/3 as popular as the vanilla hero, and most are much less.  If I aggregate by deck, it'll just look like the default deck for everyone except her.  This might change once the complete variants pack is on store shelves, and digitally once Season 2 is out.  But for now it doesn't look like there's much point.  So the tool is basically done for now unless someone comes up with another good idea for a feature.


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MindWanderer.

THANK YOU

Serously, thank you so very much for this awesome work. This is such a great bundle of tools that i am very impressed with your work and very very grateful for being able to take this to the next level


Lynkfox.
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ddchasek
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WOW. The new data results site is great to look at. And man I knew I had put in a lot of games over the last year or so because of digital but over 100 wow. Then there is AbNelson that dude is devoted.

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I have a new and improved calculator and randomizer up here: http://mindwanderer.net/sotm/randomizer.html

Please note that since this is interactive, it's considerably more complex than the previous calculator, so right now please consider it in open beta.  Please give it a try and report any bugs to me--I'm sure there will be some.  And if a function isn't clear after reading the "about" text, let me know that as well.  You can try it on mobile, too; I've put in some responsive CSS, so this should be more one-size-fits-all than the original stats pages.

Also, this is all Javascript, which effectively makes it open source.  If anyone else wants to write tools based on this data or its underlying math, knock yourself out.

This currently doesn't support "target difficulty" the way the randomizer app does.  I'd like to do so but I have to think about how to design that efficiently.  In the meantime, it's probably faster to just try it a few times until you get something you like.


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TakeWalker
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...How do you unlock heroes? c.c I feel kinda dumb.

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They're unlocked by default.  You can lock or unlock them by clicking on the lock icon to their right, or clicking on the lock icon at the top of the table to lock/unlock all of them at once, or use the Quick Select buttons to lock/unlock all heroes, villains, and environments from a particular expansion.  The About link explains this, but I guess it wasn't clear?


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It took me a while to find that link.

It would be helpful if this could bring the selected characters to the top of each column or something. I was expecting some sort of output list, until I noticed one of the environments was selected. With the limited display room and large number of heroes, it seems like it could be hard to find what's actually been randomized. Just my thoughts, I'm not great at internet sometimes. :C

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You can mouse over the output after hitting Calculate to see what was selected (or touch it on a touchscreen).  I've also now added the ability to sort by checked status.


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All right, so I've figured out this much.

The "Quick Select" buttons are for locking (or unlocking) whole expansions. Good idea, helps for the digital version especially.

I can't get any kind of output pop-up, but the sort by checked is working, so that's good. (I can also set it to show -1 entries in the drop-down, which gives me everything <.<)

Everything else seems to work correctly, though oddly if you deselect a hero and hit calculate, it won't until you've set the number of heroes to what's currently selected, or vice versa. That's kind of odd.

I think you've got a good randomizer here, though. :)

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TakeWalker wrote:
Everything else seems to work correctly, though oddly if you deselect a hero and hit calculate, it won't until you've set the number of heroes to what's currently selected, or vice versa. That's kind of odd.
That's an artifact from my original concept.  I had planned to make it so that you could make an incomplete selection and it would show you what the range of possibilities are, if you chose the worst/hardest or best/easiest remaining unlocked choices.  In its current incarnation, I agree that it doesn't make much sense.  I'm not sure that feature is necessarily helpful, since you can sort by model coefficient and easily see what the most extreme options are, and just try them manually.  I'll go ahead and change it.

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Also, FYI, Madame Mittermeier's isn't showing up on the randomizer, because it's hard-coded (to include expansion data) and it's misspelled in the Google form.

Out of curiosity, since we have all the normal villains we're ever going to have now, I took a look at where the difficulty levels stand.  Looking for obvious breaks, the difficulty levels seem to be about this:

Difficulty 1:

  • Tormented Infinitor
  • Unstable Kismet
  • Chokepoint
  • Ambuscade
  • Gloomweaver
  • Deadline

Difficulty 2:

  • The Ennead
  • Baron Blade
  • Apostate
  • Kismet
  • Mad Bomber Blade
  • Wager Master

Borderline difficulty 2/3:

  • Akash'bhuta
  • Miss Information

Difficulty 3:

  • Spite
  • Omnitron
  • Grand Warlord Voss
  • Plague Rat
  • Citizen Dawn

Borderline difficulty 3/4:

  • Skinwalker Gloomweaver
  • Progeny
  • Infinitor
  • La Capitan

Difficulty 4:

  • The Matriarch
  • Agent of Gloom Spite
  • The Dreamer
  • The Chairman
  • Cosmic Omnitron
  • Vengeance Style (on average)

Difficulty 5:

  • Iron Legacy
  • Kaargra Warfang

Iron Legacy and Kaarga really do deserve a category of their own.  The gap between them and everyone else is tremendous.  It's interesting to see where >G got the difficulties right, and where they got them completely wrong.  The promos are largely way off, but not as badly as Deadline, Gloomweaver, and Omnitron.


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TakeWalker
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Man, I never thought Kaargra was that hard. :O

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Things can get out of hand quick with Kaargra simply because she can win just as easily with favor as she can by beating down the heroes.  


Crush your enemies, drive them before you, and laminate their women! - Guise, Prime Wardens #31

 
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More easily, IMO.  I've lost to her several times, never due to incapacitation.  And every time, the heroes rack up the 20 favor while Kaarga is out, and actually have more favor than her when she reaches her 20.  If Kaargra herself had just a little bit less HP, or had one less "Get Back In There," I think she'd be on par with the 4's.  The fact that she has two of them out of only 15 cards makes that card, and Fickle Fans, much nastier than they should be.  If she didn't have "Get Back In There" at all, I think she'd be a solid 3.


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Maybe it's just that I always enjoy fighting her. :B The difference in how you approach her as a villain versus everyone else just makes her games special.

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New statistics added to the report: 

On the Heroes page, probability of each hero being incapacitated, and probability of going on to win given that the hero was incapacitated.

On the Villains page, probability that the villain will flip at least once during the game, and probability that the heroes will win given a game in which the hero does or does not flip.

On the Details page of each villain, the count of the number of times games ended in different ways.  Since we're on the topic of Kaargra: only 26% of Normal Kaargra's wins are due to hero incapacitation, and 17% of Advanced Kaargra's.

This is also the point at which error on the part of the contributors becomes extremely apparent.  For instance, a substantial number of people reported beating Baron Blade, Miss Information, The Dreamer, The Chairman, and Skinwalker Gloomweaver without flipping them.  However, the overall trends seem credible.


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Added a button to the randomizer to toggle cards not yet present in the video game.

Also noticed something interesting, randomly: The members of Dark Watch have terribly synergy with each other.  Not many character-character interactions are statistically significant, but nearly all the Dark Watch ones are, massively so, and they're all negative.  It's not true for the actual Dark Watch promo cards, but the vanilla versions of Setback, Nightmist, Expatriette, and Mr. Fixer all do way, way worse with each other on their team.


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MindWanderer wrote:

Added a button to the randomizer to toggle cards not yet present in the video game.Also noticed something interesting, randomly: The members of Dark Watch have terribly synergy with each other.  Not many character-character interactions are statistically significant, but nearly all the Dark Watch ones are, massively so, and they're all negative.  It's not true for the actual Dark Watch promo cards, but the vanilla versions of Setback, Nightmist, Expatriette, and Mr. Fixer all do way, way worse with each other on their team.

Pretty sure I played a large part in creating that trend.

I battled each villain on advanced with the base form versions of each team until they either won once or lost 10 times....

The Freedom Five had a win rate of 82.9% in 36 games

The Prime Wardens had a win rate of 61.7% in 48 games

Dark Watch had a win rate of only 35.5% in 77 games

 

What's interesting is that the win rate for 4 hero teams is not very different from that of 5 hero teams which suggests to me that The Freedom 5 and Prime Wardens actually do work much more well together than Dark Watch and it's not just a matter of team size.

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It's probably not just you.  I imagine a lot of people play a whole team of Dark Watch and then die a lot.

I guess the way to test that would be to make teams of mostly team members, then supplement them with one or two really good characters so it's not just a total suckfest.  It's unfortunate that most of the really good characters are members of the Freedom Five, but you could compare most of Prime Wardens to most of Dark Watch.  So, say, all current members of Dark Watch vs. Fanatic, AA, Haka, and Cosmic (Tempest being by far the most successful Prime Warden), both with, say, the Hunted Naturalist or the Sentinels, or Omnitron-X or Sky-Scraper in the video game, since those characters aren't of the "make good characters better" variety.  Or even three of the team members with two off-team support characters.  Dark Watch should still have a harder time, since they're worse, but they shouldn't have a worse time than their sum.


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MindWanderer .  I've gotten your emails,  but it's coming up on my diet anniversary so. .  Yeah.  RL. 

You might be able to edit the form,  if you can go ahead and fix any mistakes you found.  If you can't post or email me and I'll try to at least find time to give you access


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Stupid phone.  First anniversary .  Not diet. 


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Nah, I don't have any privileges on that form, just the results spreadsheet.  No hurry, though, it's all minor stuff.


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The celebration of a year of successful dieting is one of the most important times in a person's life!

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In the difficulty calculator I noticed Advanced Bugbear missing from the Vengeance style list.

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That's because he appears nowhere in the data yet--no one's fought Bugbear on Advanced and reported it.


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Hadn't checked the Stats project in a while, it's looking really sweet!  I'm in the process of logging about 100 games I had screencapped on my iPad, so I'll have some more data in there soon.  Looking forward to seeing my aggregate data - I think there are a couple things that I'm going to have confirmed for me (I have a rough time with Omnitron IV, and an easy time with Mars Base, for example), but it'll be cool to see if there are some surprises in store...

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Is there a way I can check what games I've submitted to the statistics project recently?

I accidentally threw out the paper I had written the results of some recent games on before adding them to my own spreadsheet where I'm keeping records.

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I can put up a "most recently submitted games" on the user report.  In the meantime, your most recent game submitted was against Gloomweaver in Insula Primalis, the one where the game crashed, and before that was two identical games against Gloomweaver in Silver Gulch, and one against Gloomweaver in The Block.


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Follow-up: I've added that report, and ran the update manually so it has your entries from eariler today.


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MindWanderer wrote:

I can put up a "most recently submitted games" on the user report.  In the meantime, your most recent game submitted was against Gloomweaver in Insula Primalis, the one where the game crashed, and before that was two identical games against Gloomweaver in Silver Gulch, and one against Gloomweaver in The Block.

Thanks, the games I'm missing are the 3 games before those... 2 games against Advanced Apostate (1 at H=4, and 1 at H=5) and 1 against Gloomweaver (at H=3). Specificly, I'm looking for who the heroes were and what the environment's were.

 

Also, those 2 identical games were really just 1 game which means I must have accidentally submitted it twice.... adding "most recently submitted games" on the user report would probably help to make sure that doesn't happen.

 

Thanks!

MindWanderer
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Unfortunately, the report is still only going to run once a day, so you'll normally have to wait until the next day to see what you just posted.  The amount of data is huge, so trying to process it from raw data live would mean sitting there for several minutes loading each page, and would probably irritate Google for hitting their API so often.


Sentinels Statistics Project -- Statistics updated daily!

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Dandolo
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Looks like a lot of my games have been double counted actually..... that's problematic. My thought is the games must be being submitted again when I refresh my phone.  I'm going to submit all my games from my PC from now on to avoid this.

Dandolo
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The new report looks great by the way... and it allowed me to fill in the missing environments and first heroes for those games.

MindWanderer
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I deleted the duplicate entries that were showing in the last 10 games.  It also turned out that having it include players' entire game history only added a few seconds to the processing time over including just the last 10, so it's all there now.

It looks like there might be some duplicates still.  If all those apparent duplicates are actual duplicates, let me know and I'll get rid of them.


Sentinels Statistics Project -- Statistics updated daily!

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Dandolo
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Thanks!

I ran through the list of all the games I submitted to the stats project and found 31 errors. 28 games were duplicates, in 2 cases I listed the wrong environment and once I marked advanced on a game that wasn't.

 

Here's a pdf showing the timestamps of these games and what the error was:

 

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